Crime and the Economy: an Unpredicted Impact

Is crime going up or down?  The news has an agenda to draw in viewers, and tends to do so through fear tactics—inspiring people to watch their broadcasts in order to learn what crimes are taking place where, and how they can better insure their safety.  Studies have found a correspondence between the crime rates and fear rates: when one is down, the other is up, and vice-versa. This correlation has led to curiosity regarding other factors and their link to crime, one of which being the state of the economy.
According to the statistics of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, an economic downturn can boost crime rates, namely because of the sense of desperation it rouses in people.  The most crime typically occurs, predictably, in the burglary grouping.  However, the recent slump in the United States economy has had the opposite effect: as the FBI stated, the crime rate in 2009 decreased in every category, particularly in the scope of burglary.
Analysts looking at this data have been stumped.  Their reasoning takes several routes, one of which is that crime constantly fluctuates and is not measurably affected by situations including wars, stock market increases, economic downturns, or cultural discontent.  The second justification is that the law has been more powerful and that being involved in crime has become more dangerous, deterring possible criminals. The last reason that criminologists are focusing on involves age statistics; more adolescents commits crimes than older citizens, and the current youth generation makes up a lesser percentage now than any other age group.

The Astonishing Link Between Crime and Weather

Researchers worldwide have recently expressed a shared interest in weather and how it affects the moods of people.  This interest was sparked both by an increase in seasonal depression and the current concern of climate change.  It has been conventionally understood that all aspects of weather, including amounts of sunlight, wind, temperature, and precipitation are very influential on human disposition, but one study in Germany came to a surprisingly different conclusion.
According to this study, conducted by the Humboldt University in Berlin, these factors did not have a substantial influence on the moods of those surveyed.  Many disagree with their findings, arguing that they feel heavily affected by the weather on a daily basis.  The conflicting notions on this subject have sparked more interest in it and more studies are in the works.
One such study seeks to discover the impact that long periods of high temperatures can have on crime, based on the belief that when temperatures soar for an extended amount of time, people grow short-tempered and aggressive, and are more likely to commit a crime.  A number of law enforcement agencies are compiling their data that evidences a connection between high temperatures and an increase in crime.
Italians have conducted such research on this relationship between heat and crime and are even more specific in their findings:  according to a study conducted by La Sapienza University in Rome, the country’s suicide and murder rates increase up to 20 percent when the summer heat takes effect.  It is suggested dehydration as the most responsible factor in this dramatic upsurge in crime, based on the belief that the outer layer of the brain requires water to function properly.  When a person becomes dehydrated, their brain has trouble regulating negative and aggressive impulses that originate in the deeper parts of brain tissue.

Dissecting the Nature of Crime

Crime and geography are clearly linked, but how is this significant? Current research is linking the areas that crimes are committed with the areas that criminals originate from, and the types of crimes that they are committing in order to create a system that informs citizens of the most common crimes in their area, so that they can be prepared and take preventative action.   In plain language, data is being mapped to display where shoplifting most commonly occurs, as compared to financial fraud.  The majority of criminologists agree that there are several circumstances that combine in order to determine where a crime will take place and what that crime will be.  However, specifics on these factors and how to predict them are still developing, and it is uncertain if such forecasts of wrongdoing can ever be correctly produced.
Although both the why and the where are significant, criminologists have come to the conclusion that the where is the inquiry most relevant to their analysis and that it will be the most helpful to citizens.  Currently the research is focusing on area patterns of crime and their association with settings and duplications; in other words, what is happening where, and how often, and if the possible perpetrator is involved in other crimes.  By conducting such exploration, criminologists hope to capture criminals that are widespread in their illegal pursuits and stop multiple crimes by homing in on the areas that they have concluded are hot spots for specific crime.  This data will also help the law enforcement adequately prepare for the type of offenses that they know are taking place in specific areas, so that they do not waste valuable resources.